1:30 AM SATURDAY UPDATE:
A zone of moisture in West Texas drifted a little farther to the east on Friday causing showers to develop out in the Big Country near Abilene and across the Concho Valley in the Eldorado, San Angelo, Sterling City and Blackwell areas. Clouds from those showers were pretty thick in parts of Central Texas, holding high temperatures to the lower 90s in many areas. We saw a lot of cirrus cloudiness as well as some cumulus cloudiness...but we still had enough sunshine to boost high temperatures into the middle 90s again. Both Tyler and Longview hit 94 degrees while Lufkin and Nacogdoches hit 95 and Crockett made it to 99. This typical summertime "heat pump" upper level high pressrue system will continue to dominate our weather keeping showers and thunderstorms well to our west, in far West Texas and well to our north (in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas). The result will be several more partly to mostly sunny, hot and humid days with highs near 95 and of course more fair, warm and muggy nights with lows near 75. Because of the relatively high surface humidity, afternoon heat index values will continue to be close to or just above 100 degrees.
There may be a change down the road. There are some indications that the center of the upper level "heat pump" high, now over the Arkansas-Louisiana area, will drift westward and move right across East Texas on Monday and Tuesday. The result would be less morning cloudiness, lighter winds and consequently slightly hotter temperatures...possibly in the 96-98 range. Then the high may shift northward into the central Great Plains States. That would initially cause upper level winds to become easterly which could mean there will be room for an "easterly wave" (upper disturbances that move from east to west) to move in and provide enough moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon hours. If that scenario doesn't happen then the only other hope would be for the upper high to move far enough west to allow upper level winds to become strong enough out of the north to bring upper level disturbances and their associated weak cold fronts far enough south to perhaps trigger a few showers or thunderstorms. These potential situations are at least a week to 10 days away and therefore are far from certain. Therefore....
Remember your Heat Safety Tips: * Drink Plent of Clear Fluids, * Stay out of the sunshine if you can, and * Stay in an Air Conditioned Room. Some signs of Heat Exhaustion include Nausea, Confusion, Cramping, Headache, and Vomiting. Small children and the elderly can suffer from Heat Exhaustion more quickly than a healthy adult, so take care to monitor them closely.
FORECAST DETAILS:
OVERNIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy, very warm and humid. Lows: 74-78. Winds S 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY through SUNDAY: Some morning cloudiness, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy, very warm and humid. Highs each afternoon near 95. Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-103. Winds SSW 10-15 mph. Nights will continue to be fair, warm and sticky with lows near 75.
MONDAY through FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and a little hotter and continued humid. Early morning lows near 75. Afternoon highs 96-98. Afternoon heat index values will reach 101-105. Winds Variable 5-15 mph. (mostly light south to southwest each morning and then light east to southeast each afternoon).
Scott Chesner