12:30 AM FRIDAY UPDATE:
After a stormy Wednesday night and Thursday morning we had a quiet Thursday evening across East Texas and we expect that situation to continue for most of the day Friday. Severe thunderstorms hit the West Central Texas Thursday evening. Hail up to baseball size fell in Lampasas County and torrential rains of 3 to 5 inches fell in parts of Comanche, Hamilton, Mills, San Saba and Lampasas counties causing flash flood warnings to be issued. Those storms moved south-southeastward through the Austin area before dissipating. A large shield of cirrostratus cloudiness expanded eastard across East Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas and Mississippi Thursday evening. This made for very pretty, but also eerie looking sunset across East Texas. Radar showed light to moderate rain in parts of the area, but virtually all of that precipitation was evaporating as it fell through a layer of very dry air located several thousand feet above the ground. Even that precipitation dissipated late Thursday night leaving us with partly cloudy skies overnight. With light winds and high dew points some patchy fog could form towards daybreak.
Friday should be a relatively nice day with morning low clouds and patchy fog giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon as highs reach the lower to middle 90s across the area.... a good 10-15 degrees higher than we saw on Thursday when for a period of a few hours the Tyler -Longview area had the lowest temperatures in about a 400 mile radius as we hovered in the mid 70s Thursday afternoon. One would have to travel all the way to the NW Oklahoma Panhandle to find temperatures that low. That will not be the case on Friday as sunshine will be more widely distributed boosting temperatures into the lower 90s across just about all of East Texas with upper 90s to near 100 likely in Central Texas and 100-105 in parts of West Texas.
However, the old frontal boundary will remain not too far to our north, up in south central Oklahoma. That front could become a focal area for thunderstorm development Friday evening. If those storms form, upper level winds from the WNW would cause the storms to move east-southeastward into North Central and Northeast Texas, possibly affecting the northern portions of our East Texas viewing area (mainly near and to the north of Interstate 20). Any storms would dissipate by mid-morning on Saturday followed by a partly to mostly sunny and hotter afternoon with highs in the mid 90s. Once again storms could develop in the northern portions of East Texas late Saturday or Saturday night as that frontal boundary lingers near the Texas - Oklahoma border. But after that....there are strong indications that the front will retreat much farther north as upper level ridge of high pressure known as the "summertime heat pump high" intensifies and builds northward across Texas. The result will probably be several mostly sunny and hot days with no thunderstorm activity as the atmosphere will overall be too warm and stable to support storm development. As a result, beginning Sunday afternoon we can expect mostly sunny and hotter than normal weather with highs in the mid to jupper 90 and lows in the middle 70s. Summer is certainly arriving across East Texas!
FORECAST DETAILS:
OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy and humid with some patchy fog forming. Lows: 68-75. Winds: Light ESE.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY: Morning low clouds and patchy fog giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures during the afternoon. High near 92. Winds S 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variable clouds with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, mostly to the north of Tyler and Longview. Overall rain chances: 30% Lows: 70-75. Winds SSE 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Chance of a brief early morning shower, otherwise partly to mostly sunny and hotter. High near 95. Winds South 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy...slight chance of a few scattered storms, again mainly in the northern portions of East Texas. Lows: 70-75.
SUNDAY: Becoming mostly sunny and hot. High 96. Winds S 10-15 mph.
MONDAY through THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy and continued hot and humid. Lows 74-75, Highs 94-95. Winds S 10-20 mph.
Scott Chesner