(KETK) - Tyler, Tx —
Sunday 9:30AM Update:
The main cold front has pushed through East Texas. Now, a reinforcing cold front--that contains stronger winds and cooler air--is now making its way to East Texas.
Here is the position of the fronts as of 9:30AM.
Winds will pick up as we go through the day. Wind gusts at times today will be near 40 miles per hour. As of 9:30AM, wind speeds have increased in the Hopkins and Wood counties. This will continue to move East and South.
Because of the very high winds, Wind Advisories are posted for much of the area today.
I do expect temperatures to fall throughout the day. Falling into the 40s by late this afternoon.
Saturday 8:20PM Update:
I'm tracking a line of strong thunderstorms that will be moving into our Western counties very soon. The line is the strongest on the northern end (I-30 region) and on the southern end (Central Texas).
Here's what you can expect this evening. This line will move in, providing showers and thunderstorms. We could see a few warnings, but the biggest threat will be the heavy rain and gusty winds. Since it is nighttime, most of the instability is gone, but the winds are moving very fast. This will allow storms to produce some hail, along with damaging winds. The tornado threat is still present, but I think that is still a very isolated chance. These storms will persist through the night as this lines moves to the East. By tomorrow morning, a cold front will be moving through East Texas, and it will be much cooler tomorrow and very windy.
As of 8:15PM, the only watch for East Texas is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Hopkins county until 10PM.
There is still a possibility of another round of storms late tonight after this line moves through. The latest model run of the RPM model suggests some shower and storm activity just after midnight.
I will have another update tonight on KETK News at Ten.
Saturday 3:30PM Update
Scattered showers continue in Deep East Texas and in some areas of East Texas.
There are more showers and thunderstorms back in the Metroplex and back to the West. This line will be sliding East as the shortwave trough moves into our region.
This does still provide a chance of some strong storms this evening and tonight.
JUST IN AS OF 3:45PM: The Storm Prediction Center is considering the possibility of a Tornado Watch for East Texas. The current thinking is that the wind at 5,000 feet is out of the due South at 25-40 miles per hour and increasing. Also, winds at 18,000 feet are out of the West/Southwest at about 70 miles per hour. Because of this change in wind speed and direction with height, some storms could produce damaging winds and some isolated tornadoes. We will closely monitor the radar trends over the next several hours.
I'll have a live update and forecast coming up on Live at Five.
Saturday 10:45AM Update
Temperatures are very mild this morning and dew points are mainly in the upper 50s.
The limiting factor for storms to really fire up today will be the cloud cover. If we can get some sunshine to heat up the surface, it could allow for storms to develop. Right now, clouds look to hang tough for pretty much the whole day.
Also, even though we may have a lot of cloud cover today, other severe weather parameters are in place for storms to have damaging winds and hail with them. For the wind potential, we have a change in wind speed and direction as you go up in the atmosphere. This change in wind can provide some damaging winds at the surface and an isolated tornado threat. Here are the current wind speeds in East Texas and the wind speeds at 5,000 feet and 18,000 feet.
The hail threat exists because temperatures at 10,000 feet and above are below freezing. However, because the wind shear is not too strong, the hail size will be small. If wind shear were to increase, the storm would have a distinct updraft and downdraft—allowing for larger hail to develop.
This is now a wait-and-see time period. The cloud cover is the big limitation for storms to strengthen. We’ll be closely monitoring new weather data and will be ready if storms do become severe this afternoon and evening. Storms look to become more widespread as the upper-level shortwave moves to Central Texas, providing our lifting mechanism for showers and storms late today.
--Meteorologist Marcus Bagwell
Friday 10PM Update
New model data coming in is suggesting that East Texas will receive two rounds of storms on Saturday. The first is new to me, and I want to pass it along to you.
The RPM model—which is a mesoscale model and provides an hour-by-hour forecast, is now showing a round of storms moving in by the early afternoon hours. This begins in Deep East Texas and moves northward. The 7PM run another mesoscale model—the RAP—shows some storms in the area by the early afternoon. Here is the model output at 12:30PM Saturday.
Dew points will be on the rise in East Texas. Tonight, they were in the low to middle 50s. By tomorrow morning, I expect the dew points to be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees—which is very muggy.
With all this said, here are my updated rain chances.
We will be watching this closely. By tomorrow morning, we will have more information.
Friday 5PM Update
Your Friday featured a mostly cloudy day. Breezy and mild also, with afternoon highs reaching the middle/upper 60s and some low 70s in Deep East Texas.
We’re watching a storm system that is now setting up in the Four-Corner region and will provide East Texas with showers and some strong thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.
Because of this threat, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has placed East Texas under a Slight Risk of storms on Saturday. Right now, the main threats are damaging winds and hail. The tornado threat is present, but right now it is low.
Let’s detail your forecast through Sunday.
Expect more clouds to increase, thanks to a southerly wind between 10-15 miles per hour. I am not expecting any rain tonight—so any plans you may have look good, it’ll just be breezy at times. Lows tonight will mainly be in the middle to upper 50s and some low 60s.
By daybreak, we could have a few light scattered showers in the area. Saturday morning will be the best time to run errands or take care of any outdoor plans as rain chances will be increasing throughout the day.
It will be humid as well. If we can get some breaks in the clouds Saturday, temperatures by afternoon will approaching the middle 60s to the low 70s.
Let me show you precipitation outputs by GFS and NAM at 1PM. Computer models indicate that a line of showers and strong storms will develop in North-Central Texas along a warm front. While the precipitation does not look heavy, this area will have the best potential for severe storms—due to North-Central Texas seeing more sunshine, providing instability.
The reason why we could see strong storms in the late afternoon and evening is due to a decent level of wind shear in the atmosphere. Wind shear is a change in speed and direction over an area. As these storms approach us, they will tap into more of a stronger wind environment that is conducive for a damaging wind event (and why isolated tornadoes are not ruled out). Here is the RPM output of precipitation at 4PM, 7PM, and 10PM.
Showers and a few thunderstorms look to linger into the late night hours, and by time this system is out of East Texas, we could have between one-half to one and one-half inches of rain. But by Sunday morning, a cold front will be moving through.
SUNDAY’S COLD FRONT
By 7AM Sunday morning, the front will be moving through East Texas. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and it will be very windy as well. I believe we will have a few light rain showers and mist left over on Sunday, but the more important story is the colder air. High temperatures on Sunday will be reached in the early morning hours and temperatures falling throughout the day.
Here is the NAM timing the cold front with the temperatures and wind at 7AM, 1PM, and 7PM on Sunday.
Sunday night into Monday will be very cold with another freeze possible for our area. Monday morning lows vary with the GFS and the NAM.
So for now, we’ll be watching the chance of some strong storms on Saturday and will update the blog as necessary during the day. For weather anytime, stay with the KETK Weather page .