(KETK) - Tyler, Tx —
Sunday 9:30AM Update:
The cold front moved through East Texas late Saturday night and early this morning. As the front moved to the South and East, we had scattered showers and storms pop up and some of them produced Severe T-Storm Warnings. Here is the warned storm over Nacogdoches county that had a confirmed report by a trained storm spotter of quarter-size hail (1 inch in diameter) 7 miles South of Mount Enterprise. This was from early Sunday morning.
We also had very heavy rainfall in our Northeastern counties last night, but the heaviest of the rainfall fell in Shelby county (Center). Overnight, the one hour rainfall totals reached between 0.50 inches to 1.50" of rain. This storm was a slow mover through the county, allowing for a very beneficial rainfall, with lightning and gusty winds. (Image below is radar-indicated rainfall, not what was actually observed)
Today will be a cold, cloudy, and windy day for East Texas.
There are scattered showers to the south and to the west. I will hold onto the 20% chance of rain today across East Texas. Have the umbrella handy just incase a rain shower moves into your neighborhood.
The more important weather story of the day will be the windy conditions and the cooler air. Wind speeds this morning have been out of the Northeast between 5-20 miles per hour with some gusts near 25-30 miles per hour.
That wind is producing "coat" weather for today. Wind chill values this morning are in the 40s and 50s.
Overall, highs today will reach the middle to upper 50s. We'll hold onto the chance for an isolated shower or storm. Today will be mainly cloudy with some locations seeing a few brief periods of sunshine.
Tonight will be very chilly. Overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 30s and low 40s. Not expecting a freeze in East Texas, but some patchy frost is possible.
Stay warm today.
Saturday 1:30PM Update:
Here is your Saturday afternoon update.
Currently, it is a very warm and humid afternoon in East Texas. Current temperatures much warmer than forecasted for many locations. The dew points are also in the 60s area-wide, sending a lot of moisture into the atmosphere.
The winds are not too bad, thanks to the very expansive cloud cover we have in our area. But, you can notice that the cold front has entered Hopkins county and will continue to move to the South and East through the afternoon and evening.
On radar, there has been more shower and storm activity confined to Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. Scattered activity is showing up near Hopkins county, and more activity is expected to develop behind the cold front and as it continues toward Deep East Texas.
Hi-resolution RPM Model is hinting at scattered showers and storms to develop in the next several hours. While this model does suggest shower activity to our West, I still belive we will have scattered activity in East Texas. I will hold onto our 40% chance of rain this evening across the area, but the rain will be more widespread. Have an alternate plan for this evening if your plans involve the outdoors.
Friday Night Update:
The weekend is upon us, and once again it will be gloomy, wet, and turning cooler again. Our forecast is a tough one for this weekend, but I will explain it here the best way possible.
Clouds will continue to increase across East Texas. As of earlier this afternoon, the satellite loop showed a fair amount of cloud cover over Central Texas. These clouds will continue to move toward our area by late this evening.
As far as rain chances for tonight, we could see some scattered showers and a thunderstorm tonight. The mesoscale models—RPM & RAP—indicate some showers and storms possible along the cold front that is draped along the Red River.
Here is the RPM Model at 8PM, 11PM, & 3AM.
Here is the RAP Model at 8PM, 11PM, & 3AM.
By Saturday morning, I’m forecasting temperatures at daybreak in the upper 50s and lower 60s. We will see scattered showers during the day, but I believe the better chances of rain will be along and behind the cold front that arrives late afternoon and early evening.
Here is the GFS and NAM on the front by Saturday afternoon.
Scattered showers really increase by late afternoon and evening. Here are the GFS and NAM outputs of precipitation Saturday evening.
Sunday will be much cooler across our area. Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s thanks to the cold front from Saturday.
The situation that I will be watching for Sunday is more showers and storms to develop well behind the cold front.
The GFS and NAM show rain chances, but mainly for West and South Texas.
The high-resolution RPM model is the model depicting more showers and storms to be possible on Sunday.
The setup for this will be that temperatures at 5,000 feet will be warmer than surface temperatures. That, along with a very strong subtropical jet stream at 35,000 feet pulling in moisture, will aid in the development of scattered showers and some storms.
Keep an eye to the sky, as showers and storms will be hit and miss during the weekend. Visit our weather page for the latest forecast.