POSTED: Monday, January 24, 2011 - 4:36pm
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 - 9:57am
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people who bought previously owned homes last year fell to the lowest level in 13 years, and economists say it will be years before the housing market fully recovers.
High unemployment and a record number of foreclosures are deterring potential buyers who fear home prices haven't reached the bottom. Job growth is expected to pick up this year, but not enough to raise home sales to healthier levels.
"We built too many houses during the boom, and now after the crash, it will take us a long time to get back to normal," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales dropped 4.8 percent to 4.91 million units in 2010. That was slightly fewer than in 2008, which had been the weakest year since 1997.
The poor year for sales did end on a stronger note. Buyers snapped up homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million units in December, the best sales pace since May and the 12.8 percent rise from November was the biggest one-month surge in 11 years.
Gains in mortgage rates may have spurred some fence-sitters to buy homes in December before rates moved higher, analysts noted.
The increase was an encouraging sign after a dismal year for home sales, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. But he cautioned against raising expectations for a rapid recovery in housing.
"The job market is still very weak, and unemployment is very high. Until we get more jobs, people will be reticent about buying homes," he said.
Zandi said home prices would fall another 5 percent this year. Sales of previously occupied homes would likely exceed 5 million. That's a slight improvement from last year, he said, but it will probably take until 2013 or 2014 for sales to reach a healthy level of 6 million units a year.
Home sales will benefit from an improved hiring market. Many economists predict employers will double the number of jobs added this year compared with 2010. A reason for more optimism is a decline in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits over the past four months.
Last week, applications fell to a seasonally adjusted 404,000, the Labor Department said. That followed a spike in applications in the previous week, which is typical after the holidays end and employers let temporary workers go. Even with the holiday bump and this past week's decline, the latest figures were only slightly higher than the 391,000 level reached last month - the lowest in more than two years.
Fewer than 425,000 people applying for benefits is considered a signal of modest job growth. Economists say applications must fall consistently to 375,000 or fewer to substantially reduce the unemployment rate.
Still, the unemployment rate is not expected to fall much below 9 percent this year. And the housing market cannot fully recover until the glut of foreclosed homes is cleared.
Last year, a record 1 million homes were lost to foreclosures, and foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc. predicts 1.2 million more will be lost this year.
Foreclosures or distressed sales such as short sales - when lenders let homeowners sell for less than they owe on their mortgages - are forcing home prices down in many markets. That has made it difficult for some potential buyers looking to upgrade, because they would have to accept less money to sell their current home.
Even historically low mortgage rates have done little to boost the sales.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.74 percent this week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. That's up from a 40-year low of 4.17 percent in November. The average rate on the 15-year loan, a popular refinance option, slipped to 4.05 percent last week. That's nearly half a point higher than the 3.57 percent rate in November - a 20-year low.
For December, sales rose in all parts of the country, with the strongest gain a 16.7 percent increase in the West. Sales rose 13 percent in the Northeast, 10.1 percent in the South and 11 percent in the Midwest.
The median price for a home sold in December was $168,800, down 1 percent from a year ago.
Jessica Wilson/ KETKnbc.com