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Saturday, September 20, 2014 - 1:11am

Updated: Heaviest Rain Shifting East

Updated: Heaviest Rain Shifting East
College of DuPage/KETK
Weather Talk
Friday, August 29, 2014 - 5:24pm

Still Scattered Storms Possible Saturday & Sunday

FRIDAY PM UPDATE:

Good afternoon. I wanted to provide a brief update for the rain chances on Saturday. As mentioned in yesterday’s post, the models were beginning to push the bulk of heavy rainfall to our east. Today, the models continue to show it more to the east. With that being said, scattered showers and storms will still be possible over East Texas on Saturday. Wide-spread rainfall/washout conditions are not expected.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM:

Showers and a few storms will certainly remain around through the evening. These will continue to be hit and miss. Since afternoon high temperatures were able to peak in the low 90s, this does mean that scattered storms will remain possible this evening due to the daytime heating and lots of moisture for storms to work with. Have an umbrella or poncho just in case. Rain chances do go down as we continue to lose the sunshine as no upper level mechanism will be available for the storms to carry themselves.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY:

Scattered showers and storms could be ongoing in the morning hours, with the best chance being along the Texas/Louisiana coast and into parts of Deep East Texas.

During the day, the bulk of the rainfall will be in Louisiana. However, with daytime heating, pop-up scattered storms will be possible over East Texas. Right now, I think the better chance of rainfall over our area will be confined to our southern counties where the axis of moisture will ride.

Note the NAM is not showing afternoon activity over ETX, but it is certainly possible.

Below is the 4PM output for the NAM and Texas Tech models. The Tech model indicates scattered storms coming in from the west/northwest during the afternoon.

Most rainfall ending shortly after sunset, but chance of rain should remain for far eastern and southern counties.

SUNDAY:

The threat of rain on Sunday comes down significantly to widely scattered. We will see afternoon showers and storms possible due to the sea breeze effect off the Texas coast.

The models are potentially overdoing the precipitation. The moisture axis should be farther east. Here is the NAM and Texas Tech model output for Sunday 4PM. We will watch this closely.

Still a tricky forecast for this weekend. This tropical disturbance could possibly not shift east, which would increase our rain chances more. Right now, it does not look to be the case. I’ll be updating you throughout the weekend, both on-air and online.

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THURSDAY PM UPDATE:

We continue to monitor the threat for heavy rainfall from late Friday night through Sunday in East Texas. The good news right now is that most of the day Friday will remain rain-free.

What I will do is provide details for the morning, afternoon, & evening hours on Friday, and then cover Friday night through Sunday.

FRIDAY AM:

We can expect a partly to mostly cloudy skies across East Texas. Any rain looks to be where the upper disturbance to our north and off the Texas coast. Temperatures will be in the low and middle 70s.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON:

During the afternoon hours, a mix of sun and clouds will lead to very warm and humid temperatures. We can’t totally rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm during the early afternoon hours due to daytime heating. Highs Friday afternoon in the low 90s.

By the late afternoon, the NAM model is hinting at some late day storms over Deep East Texas between 2-5PM. The Texas Tech model is showing a similar development, along with spotty showers or storms to our west and north.

FRIDAY EVENING:

Area showers and storms are very possible for Friday Night Football games in Deep East Texas. The NAM indicates a band of rain over Deep East Texas around 7PM, while the RPM model keeps it dry. We believe the rain Friday evening will be scattered and dissipating by late evening.

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING:

We can expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity beginning in Deep East Texas sometime after midnight. The NAM model has the activity getting very close to our southern counties between 3-7AM. The RPM model keeps the rain and storms to just outside of the KETK Viewing area.

By Saturday morning, the NAM and RPM differ between what will take place. The RPM pushes the heaviest rainfall to the Texas/Louisiana coast while the NAM has heavy rain in our southeastern counties. This will all depend on the track of the upper level disturbance and where its energy will lie. If it is to our East, then the RPM model will verify. The NAM model is showing the upper level energy to move north toward Deep East Texas—where the model has the heaviest rainfall taking place. Something we will closely monitor over the next 24-36 hours.

SATURDAY DAYTIME & NIGHTTIME:

I think it’s very safe to say that you’ll want to have indoor plans. Everyone will have a chance at seeing rainfall—the greatest chances will be in Deep East Texas.

Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times, and we will need to be watchful for flooding.

A few showers and storms are even possible overnight and into Sunday morning.

SUNDAY:

On Sunday, the upper level disturbance will still be close to us, and we will need to leave a chance of showers or storms in the forecast for all of East Texas.

THE SETUP:

We look to the upper level flow in the atmosphere. The graphic below is vorticity—which equates to spin in the atmosphere. This spin, as it increases, pushes more moisture toward East Texas. This will enhance our rain chances by Friday night and especially on Saturday. Notice the spin over Deep East Texas by Saturday morning.

We will keep you updated. The biggest question is where this upper level spin will occur. If it pushes East, then rain chances will move East. If it stays moving to the north, then very heavy rain is possible for East Texas. It is worth watching over the next 24-36 hours. 

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WEDNESDAY PM UPDATE:

School has started, and we’ve had the typical August style of weather you expect—hot and humid. Compared to this time last year, we were a few degrees cooler. Highs at the end of August 2013 were between 96° and 102°; highs today have reached the low and middle 90s.

FRIDAY FOOTBALL FEVER!!!

This is my first true season of high school & college football in East Texas. I remember seeing some good action from last year, and this year promises to be nothing short of incredible—we have fantastic talent in East Texas!

Unfortunately our weather does not look to cooperate for this a good portion of the weekend. We’re not expecting severe weather, but a few strong storms are possible. The biggest concern is the threat of heavy rainfall. Let’s talk details!

THE OVERALL SETUP:

The setup for this event is caused by two upper level disturbances: one coming out of the Rocky Mountains and Four-Corner states moving toward the southern plains states, another—a tropical disturbance-- just off the Texas coast that will make a move toward the northeast. These two will enhance rain chances, and could lead to some beneficial rainfall from Friday through Sunday.

THURSDAY:

Scattered showers and a few t-storms will be possible over Deep East Texas. Overall, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm elsewhere. Rain chances: 20%-30%. Temperatures will top out in the low and middle 90s with a bit more cloud cover than Wednesday.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM:

Some high school games start Thursday night, and I believe that any rain showers during the day will be diminishing by game time. Chance of rain for the night will be 20% or less. Overall, not expecting any rainfall overnight on Thursday either. We will see an increase in cloud cover… that will allow overnight lows to be in the low and middle 70s.

FRIDAY AM:

Right now, it looks like the morning through very early afternoon will have the lowest rain chances.

GFS has some rain in the area and the NAM keeps us rain free. Rain threat Friday morning looks to be 30% or less.

The RPM models agrees to keep us quiet by Friday morning. We do look to have a mostly cloudy sky by Friday AM.

FRIDAY PM/EVENING:

Rain chances do increase by the afternoon and evening over East Texas. The upper level disturbances mentioned earlier will be near us. This will mean an increase in moisture in the atmosphere, and will lead to showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to mid-90s, depending on where the rain takes place.

There are a few differences in the forecast models for rainfall. The Texas Tech model is showing scattered storms in ETX just after lunch. The RPM model has rain and storm chances increasing from the west and south by mid-afternoon.

By Friday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around East Texas. Make sure you pack a poncho and umbrella for those games.

Here is the GFS/NAM model printout for 7PM Friday.

SATURDAY:

Even more rainfall is expected on Saturday compared to Friday. High moisture content coming in from the upper tropical disturbance along the Texas gulf coast border will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms—and for ETX, that’s where we could see some heavy rainfall.

7AM Saturday shows scattered showers around East Texas, with an increase by both models into the afternoon hours and evening on Saturday. If this were to verify, we could have highs in the 70s and 80s—a blessing to end August!

Rain continues to remain possible through late Saturday night.

SUNDAY:

Rain chances on Sunday look to be less than 30%, with most rain falling East into Louisiana and south of us. Skies should return to partly cloudy and it will certainly be humid and muggy due to the recent rainfall. Temperatures should round out in the upper 80s and low 90s.

LABOR DAY:

The final day of the holiday weekend looks to be mostly rain free. It will be very humid but highs reaching the low and middle 90s.

IN SUMMARY:

The first half of the weekend will likely be soggy and wet. Scattered showers and storms will be possible as early as Friday morning and lasting through late Saturday night. There is a lot of available tropical moisture to play into this forecast, and we will need to be aware for some heavy rainfall. Severe weather is not expected, but thunderstorms are likely with gusty winds and heavy rain can be expected.

The second half of the weekend looks to be sticky and humid with slim rain chances on Sunday and next to none on Labor Day. We look to have a cooler than normal end to the month of August.

I’ll update the weather blog again Thursday afternoon with newer information. Meanwhile, stay tuned on-air as Chief Meteorologist Scott Chesner and Dr. Robert Thornton provide updates. As always, see the latest forecast details at the KETK Weather Page

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