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Updated Weather Talk: Another round of rain this afternoon

Updated Weather Talk: Another round of rain this afternoon
KETK
Weather Talk

POSTED: Thursday, July 31, 2014 - 10:21am

UPDATED: Thursday, July 31, 2014 - 10:39am

Thursday 11AM Update:

As expected, we have seen a lot of rainfall from Tyler and to the west and north. There has been some light rain in Deep East Texas this morning as well. Here are the airport totals as of 10:45 AM.

Our weather watchers have reported a lot of rain…check out these numbers:
Chandler—2.04”
Flint—1.57”
Lake Hawkins—1.98”
Murchison—1.86”
NW Smith (Jamestown/Garden Valley)—4.00”
NW Wood (Lake Fork)—2.14”
Van—4.00”

Radar estimates are showing that 4-5 inches of rain has fallen along the Smith and Van Zandt county line.

Temperatures have held in the upper 60s and low 70s for most areas. Deep East Texas has reaches the upper 70s and low 80s. 

WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER TODAY??

We are still expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms to take place in central and southern counties as a cold front moves through East Texas this afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility for the afternoon and evening hours. The high resolution forecast models we look at are all in fair agreement of additional storms developing.

I’ll show you the RPM model once again to display what it is thinking.

Redevelopment looks to take place shortly after lunchtime and into the early afternoon hours. Some storms this afternoon could be strong, with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Action does intensify in central and southern areas by the middle and late afternoon hours.

By evening, most shower and storm activity should be in Deep East Texas and the Brazos Valley as the cold front is moving through.

Another model—High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)—also shows this activity developing this afternoon and evening.

The caveat with these models is that they may not be accounting for the cloud cover in place. This cloud cover could prevent additional storms from developing. However, we do believe additional redevelopment is likely because of the cold front causing lift in the atmosphere. This cold front, along with very rich gulf moisture, will aid storms to occur.

We will watch out for these later this afternoon. If heavy rain continues over and over in specific areas, we could have some brief flash flooding.

Keep you updated.
 

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Wednesday 6PM Update:

Good afternoon. Scott and I have been talking about what will be taking place the next 24 to 36 hours.

WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW…

We are seeing a development of showers and storms now occurring in Oklahoma. We will watch this band to see what happens through the next few hours and this activity moves south.

THE SETUP…

Another upper level disturbance now in Oklahoma will continue to move southeast toward the state lines of Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. It is noted in the graphic below by the yellow, orange, and red colors. This is our lifting mechanism. To the west and south side of this disturbance, we will see the best chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Assuming that this will be happening, we will likely see two rounds. Round one will be due to this upper level disturbance and will affect our northern counties, including Smith and Gregg counties. Then, another round of showers and storms will be possible for central and southern counties as a cold front pushes through East Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.

ROUND 1

What we will be watching over the next 6-12 hours is what develops in Oklahoma. Our RPM forecast model shows by 9PM that a cluster of storms will be coming out of OKC and moving East and Southeast toward the Red River.

Overnight, this precipitation looks to develop quickly into North-central Texas near the Metroplex and by morning near Tyler/Longview.

The momentum of this could carry it further East and South than what the model is predicting, and that’s why KETK Meteorologists are forecasting gusty thunderstorms in northern and central counties by daybreak. You’ll want to have the umbrella close by and give yourself extra time to make it to your destination.

By 9AM, the model continues to show showers and storms in central and northern areas.

We look to have a break from the heavy activity for a few hours from late morning into the afternoon, and then round two will take place.

ROUND 2

This round of showers and thunderstorms will be for central and southern areas in Deep East Texas. The trigger mechanism will be a cold front passing through East Texas during the afternoon hours on Thursday. This is a good possibility if the northern and central areas see the morning rainfall.

The RPM model shows development taking place in the afternoon. The model shows the rain increasing by early afternoon, but it is possible for it to be delayed a few hours later.

FRIDAY

We believe all of the rain will be out Thursday night. We will have morning fog in the area Friday morning with mostly cloudy skies and becoming partly cloudy by afternoon.

We are forecasting a high of 80 on Friday, which could easily be a record-setting day for the coolest high temperatures.

The records for Friday, August 1st are as follows:
Tyler: 83, 2011
Longview: 83, 2011

We will be watching this carefully and keep you updated.

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Tuesday PM Update

On Monday, we had a cold front move through East Texas. It provided some good rain for central and southern counties.

Today, temperatures reached the upper 80s and low 90s. But, the dew points today dropped off into the 50s and 60s for most areas. The dew points helped usher in drier air for East Texas. It was a good relief from the heat index values of 100+ we had this past weekend.

If you are still expecting even cooler weather and more rain—which we would all take compared to 100+ degree days—then this blog post is for you.

WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW…

We are in a northwest flow pattern. When we as meteorologists say jargon like this, it means that our mid-level wind pattern (the level that drives storm systems) is out of the northwest and is separated by high pressure back to the west and an area of low pressure in Canada. See the image below.

Within this flow pattern, disturbances come out of the Rocky Mountains and move along the northwest wind pattern. Since we remain under this influence, we will have other opportunities to see rainfall.

BEFORE WE DIVE IN FURTHER:

This setup and forecast is very similar to the weather we had just two weeks ago on Thursday, July 17 and early Friday morning, July 18. That day, towns in Deep East Texas had close to a foot of rainfall. The pattern is very familiar.

MODEL PREDICTIONS…

The GFS and NAM forecast models have been placing most of the rainfall in Oklahoma for this event, but the KETK Weather Team believes that the placement of the rain will be shifted more toward Texas because we will have warmer air in place and the momentum of the northwest flow will force the rain and storms southward toward East Texas.

Because of this situation, the model we are looking at for more guidance is the Texas Tech model. It is taking the precipitation and moving it southeast compared to the GFS and NAM of sending it mainly due east.

This model will also give us a few chances at showers and thunderstorms during the day, with better chances coming late Wednesday and into Thursday.

DISCLAIMER

While these are predictions of what will happen, KETK Meteorologists believe that the rain will be more than what models are predicting. The models have struggled with these unusual cold spells, and are under-doing the precipitation that we are expecting. The calculations of the models are in summertime mode when these storm systems we’ve been receiving are similar to those of Fall. This means that rain will be more widespread than the models are predicting.

TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST…

Temperatures on Wednesday before the rain will reach the middle to upper 80s, but as the rain moves in Wednesday afternoon and by late evening, temperatures will take a tumble. By Thursday, most rain will be out of the area by late in the day, but clouds will stick with us. This will mean that highs on Thursday and Friday will likely be in the 70s!

So…here’s our forecast.

On Wednesday—
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be increasing over our area, especially by late day. Temperatures rising to the middle and upper 80s before the rain. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, rain should be occurring with lows falling into the 60s.

On Thursday—
More showers and thunderstorms with rain cooled air and cloud cover will be with us. Highs Thursday will not make it to the 80s.

On Friday—
We believe most of the rain will be gone, but clouds will hang tough. Another day in the upper 70s and low 80s.

We will likely set records for the coolest high temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

This is an incredible way to end July and begin August. Our average high should be around 94° to 95°, and we will not be close to that at all.

We will keep you updated with the latest forecast.

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