Updated Weather Talk: Rain threat primarily for southern counties tonight, rain out by Friday late AM

Updated Weather Talk: Rain threat primarily for southern counties tonight, rain out by Friday late AM
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 - 4:20pm

UPDATED: Thursday, July 17, 2014 - 7:09pm

Thursday 7PM Update

Rain threat looks to be better for our southern areas tonight. Radar trends have shown an increase in activity over Deep East Texas while our northern areas are showing little to no rain.

While we cannot rule out a stray shower or storm for northern counties, the best threat is for southern counties.

With that being said, the High Resolution Model Data now shifts most of the rain to Deep East Texas.

Rainfall amounts should be less than 1.50”, but it would not be surprising to see a few higher amounts as the upper level disturbance moves through the southern areas.

The GFS & NAM forecast models are truly having a tough time with this system, and we are relying on the mesoscale models to make this forecast.

Keep you updated as necessary.

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Thursday 12:15PM Update

Good afternoon. We are expecting an increase in the shower and storm activity for our western and northern counties for the next few hours. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model continues to show an increase in rain coverage through mid-afternoon.

Later this afternoon, a break is expected for our central areas while the model shows Deep East Texas has scattered showers and storms.

More development is expected later this afternoon and by evening.

Flash flooding becoming a major concern as multiple weather features converge onto East Texas. First, the stationary front will be lifting slowly northward as a warm front. Second, another upper level disturbance coming out of the Texas Panhandle will be moving to North-central Texas. Finally, with the stationary front moving north, more moisture will be pushing into East Texas. All three features will enhance precipitation over our area by late this afternoon and especially tonight.

For this heavy rain threat, more counties have been added to the Flash Flood Watch.

Henderson, Hopkins, Rains, and Van Zandt counties are under the watch until 1PM Friday. Camp, Cass, Franklin, Morris, Titus, Upshur, and Wood counties are under the watch until 7PM Friday.

As of 12PM, here are the latest rainfall totals at the reporting airport sites in East Texas. These are since midnight.

We will continue to keep you updated.

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Wednesday Update

Thursday and Friday look to be our best days for rain for East Texas, and at times it will be very heavy.

What I will do in this blog post is show you what the forecast models are predicting and provide our forecast, talk about the possibility of severe weather, and how much rain we could receive.

FORECAST MODELS

GFS

On Thursday, the GFS shows us that scattered showers and storms are possible in the morning hours. It looks like that most areas will not see a lot of rain through the morning and early afternoon hours.

But as we go into the afternoon and, especially by evening, rain chances do become very likely. However, the GFS model keeps the heaviest rain for East Texas to the west and in our northern/central counties.

On Friday, that’s when the GFS advertises very heavy rainfall for our area. While it continues to hold the heaviest rain in the northeastern parts of East Texas, momentum should allow heavy rain to take place in Deep East Texas as well.

EUROPEAN

The consistency with this model has been very good and I believe it gives us the best timing for rain for East Texas.

In the morning hours, it shows scattered showers along and north of I-20. It increases in intensity and moves south by late afternoon and evening.

Even through the overnight hours, it really intensifies the precipitation for East Texas.

On Friday, more heavy rain looks to take place for much of the day. This decreases in coverage—from Northwest to Southeast—as the day progresses.

OUR FORECAST

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around Thursday morning—primarily in northern counties. Rain chances do increase during the day with rain likely for all of East Texas by afternoon and evening. Some storms on Thursday afternoon could be severe (see below). Heavy rain likely Thursday night and into Friday. Rain will begin to subside by Friday afternoon.

Temperatures: Rain cooled air in place will keep us in the 70s and 80s.

SEVERE WEATHER??

At any time on Thursday, some storms could contain strong winds and some hail.

The main concern with storms on Thursday and Friday will be the very heavy rainfall expected.

HEAVY RAINFALL…HOW MUCH?

We are looking at a lot of rainfall over a short period of time, and this could lead to some flash flooding problems.

As of 12:15PM, the Fort Worth National Weather Service Office has a few of our western counties under a Flash Flood Watch. These counties include: Hopkins, Rains, & Van Zandt. This watch begins Thursday at 7AM and lasts until Friday afternoon.

The KETK Weather Team is predicting 2-5 inches of rainfall will take place over our area from Wednesday night through Saturday morning. The NWS Weather Prediction Center has our area in a range from 2-4 inches.

Flooding of low-lying areas is possible, especially where the rainfall repeatedly occurs. Please keep that in mind and stay safe.

THE SETUP

Tuesday, the cold front moved through East Texas. Now, it is stalled currently over Deep East Texas and southeast Texas.

This front will move back into East Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. As this happens, an upper level disturbance out of the Rocky Mountains will move into the region as well. Both features—the disturbance and the front—will lead to showers and storms increasing in coverage for East Texas by Thursday night.

Stay Informed

Chief Meteorologist Scott Chesner, Dr. Robert Thornton, and I will be keeping you updated with the very latest information on your television, online, and on your mobile device.

Here’s how you can have the most up-to-date weather information:

1. KETK Mobile App. It’s free and available for Apple, Android, and Blackberry products. There are great features on the App, including latest watches and warnings, current temperatures, current radar and Futurecast.

2. Social Media. Follow KETK on Facebook and Twitter for constant updates.

3. KETKnbc.com for the latest forecast.

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