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Updated Weather Talk: Scattered rain Tuesday night

Updated Weather Talk: Scattered rain Tuesday night
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Tuesday, May 27, 2014 - 8:22pm

UPDATED: Tuesday, May 27, 2014 - 8:25pm

Tuesday Evening Update:

We are still looking at some scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight for East Texas. The hi-resolution forecast models are showing varying solutions on what will happen this evening.

FIRST: THE SETUP & WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW

The upper level low pressure is now centered along the Oklahoma and Texas border. Precipitation is swirling within this low pressure--in Deep East Texas & South Texas, south/southeastern Oklahoma, Central Texas, and into Arkansas & Mississippi.

Model Outputs and Our Forecast

The models are showing different solutions. The HRRR is depicting some showers through the late evening and overnight.

The RPM Model has the storms widely scattered through the evening. It also depicts that southern counties continue to see more moderate to heavy rain at times.

THE FORECAST AND REASONING

With uncertainty in the models, we will still hold on to scattered showers this evening. Deep East Texas is very likely to see showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Northern counties, scattered showers and storms are possible. Central areas--including Tyler and Longview--may not see anything.

One thing about this system is that it's hard to predict how the upper level low will affect us at the surface. Sometimes, the upper level lows look to weaken and not produce much shower activity. In the past, there could be some disturbance that can set off showers and storms even when things are quiet. Because of this possibility, we will hold on to scattered storms, with the best chance being in Deep East Texas.

We'll continue to keep you updated.

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Monday AM Update:

We’re looking at another significant rain event to end the month of May. In this brief post, I will talk about the setup for the event, when the bulk of the rain arrives, and how much we could see.

THE SETUP

A very strong upper level area of low pressure has been slowly progressing toward East Texas. On Sunday, it was located in the four-corner region (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, & Utah). This will continue to move east toward the Texas panhandle by Monday afternoon and evening, and then by Tuesday it will be right over our area—and that’s when the rain chances really do increase.

THE RAIN CHANCES

Today:

This morning, we are seeing some light showers in western areas. These will continue to move North/Northeast, and will clip our western/northern counties.

As we go throughout the day, expect scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across East Texas. Not everyone will see the rain today.

Tuesday & the rest of the week:

By Tuesday, rain chances really ramp up over East Texas. The North American Model has been very aggressive on showers and storms moving in by the morning hours while the GFS holds off much of the rain until the afternoon and evening time period.

Either way, expect a lot of rainfall on Tuesday.

These rain chances look to continue through the week. The heaviest of rain will fall between Tuesday and Wednesday. More scattered chances of rain look likely by Thursday through the end of the week.

HOW MUCH RAIN?

The forecast guidance suggests that rain will be prevalent through the week. Even though it will be scattered by the week’s end, the moisture in the atmosphere and the upper level disturbance will lead to very beneficial rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center’s 5-Day precipitation forecast has East Texas in the 3-5 inch range. KETK Meteorologists are predicting 2-4” of rain, with locally higher amounts when this entire system is said and done.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER?

If there is a severe weather day in particular to keep in mind, it would be Tuesday. The chance of severe weather will be low, but some storms could contain damaging winds and some hail as our atmosphere is very moist and has a lot of upper level dynamics for it to work with. We’ll be monitoring that closely.

GET READY!

We need the rain, and I hope it will be beneficial to you. It will be very helpful to our area farmers, the East Texas lakes, and help ease the drought concerns in our area.

We will keep you updated both on-air and online. For the latest forecast, visit the KETK weather page.

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