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Monday, October 20, 2014 - 11:06am

Updated Weather Talk: Strong to severe storms possible today

Updated Weather Talk: Strong to severe storms possible today
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Thursday, June 12, 2014 - 11:41am

UPDATED: Thursday, June 12, 2014 - 8:27pm

Thursday 5:45PM Update:

Our atmosphere has not been able to recover with the storm activity...and this is great news. The best threat for severe weather this evening will be in Central Texas (Waco, Temple, Kileen, etc.) where they are under a Tornado Watch until 12AM tonight.

For us, there will still be scattered showers and storms across East Texas through the evening and into the overnight hours until we get the cold front through our area. Once that front moves through (early Friday morning), skies will become partly sunny with a few showers possible South of Tyler/Longview.

Keep you updated this evening.

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Thursday 11AM Update:

Good morning. We have had some strong to severe storms this morning, all West of Tyler.

The atmosphere is still very unstable this morning, meaning more storms will be likely this afternoon and evening, especially as a cold front moves in later tonight.

First, we are cloudy all over East Texas this morning. The storms that have developed to our west have been able to maintain themselves, with frequent lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and some hail.

While this is a good thing for surface-based storms to not develop, we are expecting clouds to break by this afternoon and into early this evening. This breakage in the clouds, along with daytime heating and an approaching cold front by this afternoon and evening will trigger more storms.

Let me show you what I am talking about. The model below is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR). It's a mesoscale (regional) forecast model that updates hourly. By this afternoon, we will get a break in the rain, and that does mean more showers and storms will develop.

You can note that by 3PM, storms are beginning to develop to our northwest. Then, watch the progression at 4PM, 6PM, 8PM, and 10PM. The strongest to more severe storms look to be in the Central Texas area (Waco), severe weather remains quite possible in East Texas, especially in Deep East Texas

Is is possible that our atmospheric energy could be used up by the storms we are seeing this morning. However, since we are in June, warming up the surface will not be difficult to do. This is something we are watching carefully and KETK will be here to update you all afternoon and evening.

Again, it is looking like more storms are possible later this afternoon and into the evening. Better severe weather chances are for Deep East Texas, but cannot be ruled out for the entire area.

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Wednesday Afternoon Update:

We are looking at the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Let’s get right to the details.

FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

The SPC in Norman, OK has the entire KETK viewing area under a Slight Risk of storms becoming severe tomorrow. We are also in an enhanced region for significant severe weather within 25 miles of any point. Tomorrow is a day you will want to be #KETKaware with the latest forecast. Our entire team will be working to keep you ahead of the storms.

WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DEPICTING

An upper level disturbance will be coming from the Rockies this evening and will translate to showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight in the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, Kansas, and potentially into Central Texas.

Our focus for tomorrow’s storms in East Texas will be dependent on what occurs tonight and early tomorrow morning to our north and west.

The NAM model has showers and storms along the Red River and to the West of I-35 in the Metroplex by 7AM Thursday morning.

With this setup in place, we will wake up to very warm and humid conditions with a partly cloudy sky with lows Thursday morning in the upper 60s to low 70s.

As we progress during the day Thursday, temperatures will be warming up into the upper 80s to near 90° with dew points in the upper 60s and 70s. It will be humid, muggy, and breezy. This type of environment at the surface along with the upper level disturbance moving in the heat of the afternoon will lead to strong to severe thunderstorm development during afternoon and evening. The NAM handles this situation by bringing in the precipitation in the early afternoon to northern counties, by mid/late afternoon in central counties (including Tyler/Longview), and by the early evening for southern counties.

SEVERE PARAMETERS

The definite timing of the storms is a question mark, but all the parameters for the storms to be strong to severe should be in place Thursday afternoon.

MOISTURE: There will be a strong presence of moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and at the surface. As mentioned above, our dew points will be in the upper 60s and 70s. That’s a muggy atmosphere, and storms like that kind of environment.

LIFTING MECHANISM: We will have two different lifting mechanisms for us Thursday. First, the upper level trough that will be associated with a surface low pressure will provide lift for showers and thunderstorms. The second mechanism is a potential boundary in place from the overnight/early morning storms to our north. Where this boundary sets up Thursday morning will be the place KETK Meteorologists will have to watch for quick vertical development of clouds that will lead to storms.

WIND SHEAR: Wind shear is a change with wind speed and direction. When the winds change and increase with height, storms will have the ability to sustain themselves for a long time, causing them to be severe thunderstorms. We will have winds at the surface out of the south/southeast at about 10-20 mph and winds at 5,000 feet to the southwest. This means that we can expect the potential for damaging winds with any storm Thursday afternoon and evening.

INSTABILITY: Also known as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), any sunshine we receive will heat up the low and middle levels of the atmosphere. This heating will aid in storm initiation and will mean a large hail threat for us. If we do see more cloud cover, this should not stop storms from developing due to strong lifting mechanisms as stated above.

SUMMARY

  • Strong to severe thunderstorms will be very possible beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting through the evening hours. The best time for storm development will be in peak heating (between 1-4PM). We will have to monitor what is happening Thursday morning to determine how the afternoon plays out.
  • Cloud cover is our friend tomorrow, because it can limit how strong the storms could be.
  • Main threats with any storm tomorrow:
    • Very strong winds.
    • Large hail.
    • Tornado threat is low, however we cannot rule it out.

Tomorrow morning, I will update the weather blog with new information and we’ll have a better handle on what will take place Thursday afternoon. In the mean time, be prepared by downloading the KETK Mobile App—you can track the storms wherever you are and use Futurecast to get an idea of when the storms will move into your area.

You can weather forecast at the KETK Weather Page.
  

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