Weather Talk: Early thoughts on wintry mix
POSTED: Tuesday, February 4, 2014 - 5:07pm
UPDATED: Tuesday, February 4, 2014 - 9:06pm
(KETK) - Tyler, Tx — It’s been a very cold & wet week here in East Texas. Our average high for Tyler this month is around 60°. Latest trends show that the next several days to a week look to remain below normal.
Another chance of wintry weather is headed toward our area Thursday night into Friday. The weather forecast models are having some difficulty handling this event, but I will show you why the chance remains in the forecast.
The clouds will hang tough on Wednesday across our area, but KETK meteorologists do believe that some sunshine will take place. Temperatures look to reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. It will be breezy on Wednesday also, which will make it feel like the upper 20s and lower 30s. Clouds do thicken up Wednesday night and it will be breezy and cold. Overnight lows will be below freezing. No precipitation Wednesday night—just cold.
Clouds continue across East Texas. We could have areas of drizzle during the day on Thursday. The main concern is how high the thermometer goes—guidance suggests that some areas might not make it above 35°. Thursday will definitely be a cold and breezy day. Here are the GFS and NAM predictions for 12 Noon on Thursday.
There is a small chance of some snow or sleet during the day on Thursday, but no accumulation expected.
Many areas will be at or below freezing Thursday night into early Friday morning. The question is about precipitation and if we will see any.
I will first say that this is very shallow cold air, so the forecast models are having a tough time picking up on enough vertical motion to provide East Texas with wintry weather.
The GFS and NAM are showing limited to zero moisture across East Texas. However, there still could be some low level moisture that the models are not picking up on.
A primary reason why the models are showing little to no moisture is because the overall flow is coming from the northwest. A northwest flow usually keeps moisture shut off because a flow like this comes from the north Pacific or Canada.
Temperatures will be tricky on Friday and dependent on the precipitation. KETK Meteorologists are forecasting temperatures to be in the low to middle 30s. Some precipitation will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. If precipitation lingers around Friday night into early Saturday, we could have another possible wintry mix.
This forecast will likely change. We will keep you updated as we get new information.
You can get the full weather forecast for East Texas anytime at the KETK Weather Page.