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Weather Talk: Good Rain & More Coming

Weather Talk: Good Rain & More Coming
KETK
Weather Talk

POSTED: Saturday, May 10, 2014 - 10:08pm

UPDATED: Sunday, May 11, 2014 - 4:39pm

BENEFICIAL RAINFALL

On Thursday and Friday, we had some great rainfall totals. Here are the combined reports of our weather watchers and the airport reports.

There was also a lightning fatality on Friday morning with a storm over Nacogdoches county.

The rain did help with our totals for the year. Tyler, Longview, and Lufkin are still behind on our rainfall, but this event definitely put a good dent in it.

MORE RAIN HEADED OUR WAY

That’s right; we have more showers and thunderstorms coming toward East Texas. These storms will be arriving Monday afternoon and lasting through a good part of your Tuesday.

By Monday at 1PM, the GFS has scattered showers moving into East Texas while the NAM depicts showers in the area by early afternoon.

Between Monday afternoon and evening, showers and storms will become more numerous in East Texas. The NAM is slightly less on the amount of rain in East Texas, but I do believe by late afternoon and evening, showers and storms will be ongoing.

This line continues well into the nighttime and overnight hours as both models are in agreement that showers/storms will continue late night.

The cold front will be moving into our northern/central counties between 2AM-7AM. Much cooler temperatures and blustery north winds will accompany this front.

Rain/storms continue for much of your Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will hang around for much of your Tuesday morning and parts of the afternoon. Deep East Texas will see showers around likely for much of Tuesday until this system moves out.

Temperatures will struggle to reach the 60s Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES

It’s a good bet to predict another 1-3 inches of rain with this system. I would not be surprised that some areas receive higher amounts of rain.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL

Severe weather is certainly a possibility, but it will depend on what is occurring Monday morning and afternoon. If there are clouds with showers in the area, the severe potential is less. However, if we can have daytime heating, that could aid in the severe weather. Right now, any storm that does reach severe limits will have the potential to produce hail and damaging winds. The threat I am more concerned about is flooding, because of the amount of rain we received Thursday & Friday and what we will get with this system.

THE SETUP

The cause for the big changes in our weather for this upcoming week is the jet stream. It will be taking a meridional flow—a pattern that is from north to south. This pattern will allow much cooler air from Canada to flow into East Texas. This will be staying with us for a good part of next week. As a matter of fact, next week will be well below normal—our average high for this upcoming week is 82°.

We’ll continue to keep you updated with the latest weather information. For the latest forecast, visit our KETK weather page

Comments News Comments

Marcus, thanks for the heads up. You put a lot of work into this report and it gives me a better picture of what's to come.

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