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Weather Talk: Heavy rain on Sunday

Weather Talk: Heavy rain on Sunday
MGN Online
Weather Talk
Sunday, April 6, 2014 - 11:21am

Sunday 11:15AM Update

All of East Texas (except Hopkins county) is under a Severe T-Storm Watch until 2PM Today. Storms will remain strong to severe for much of the day.

The bigger concern with these storms today will be the flooding potential. Lots of heavy rain will cause flooding threat to increase throughout the day. Look at how much rain has fallen in the last 24 hours, as of 11AM.

We will continue to see showers and storms throughout the afternoon and evening. It will not be until late tonight (8-11pm) that the storms move out of East Texas.

I'll continue to provide updates all day on KETK.

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Saturday Evening Update

Hello everyone. We had one nice day to start the weekend (Friday). Saturday was cold and well below average for East Texas. Saturday evening, we had some heavy showers and storms producing pea-size hail in Tyler.

We did have some showers Saturday afternoon and into the evening, but more rainfall is on the way for East Texas on Sunday—and you can expect it to be heavy at times.

Here are the forecast details…

SATURDAY NIGHT

Tonight, you can expect cloudy and cool conditions. We will have some area showers in the late evening, but it will not be until overnight that our rain chances do go up.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s for East Texas under cloudy skies.

By 7AM Sunday morning, showers will be ongoing across our area. They will mainly begin in Deep East Texas areas and work up toward East Texas. This is the 4PM Saturday RPM model run of precipitation at 1AM, 5AM, and 8AM on Sunday morning. Note how the showers increase as time advances.

As we approach the midday timeframe, our KETK Futurecast has shower activity all over East Texas. The heaviest of the rainfall will occur during this time period.

By the late afternoon, our model shows rain ending in our southwestern counties and is moving the showers to our northeast.

By late Sunday evening, most of the rain is out of the area. However, the RPM and Futurecast models still holds onto wrap-around moisture coming in on the backside of the area of Low pressure. With that, a chance of rain will be kept for late Sunday evening and through the overnight.

HOW MUCH RAIN?

There is the potential for some East Texas locations to see from 0.50” to almost 1.50” of rain. The NWS Weather Prediction Center has our area outlined to see beneficial rainfall with this system (from Sunday through Monday night).

With the threat of heavy rain, the Shreveport, LA office of the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Angelina, Nacogdoches, Sabine, San Augustine, and Shelby counties. This begins Sunday morning at 7AM and lasts until 7AM Monday morning. For all of East Texas, you will want to monitor local areas that are prone to flood. Stay tuned to KETK for the latest forecast and radar updates.

THE SETUP FOR ALL THE RAIN

The setup is a very strong upper level trough along with strong upward vertical motion.

As this disturbance moves eastward, it will set off showers and thunderstorms for our area. The storm threat is due to temperatures aloft being warmer than the surface. This will allow for some rain showers to have thunderstorms. We are not expecting severe weather, but a few strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.

The additional cause of this rain-maker is a surface area of Low pressure with a warm front that will be lifting back into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. All 3 of these features will combine to give us the rain chances on Sunday.

While the rain does come on the weekend, it will be a great benefit for those who are in desperate need of rain. For Tyler, we are about 5” of rain behind from where it should be for this time of the year (this graphic was posted before the rain came through Tyler Saturday evening).

We’ll be keeping you updated with the latest forecast. Stay tuned to KETK-TV, our KETK Facebook Page, our KETK Twitter Account, and our KETK Mobile App. For the weather forecast, visit our weather page

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