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Weather Talk: Monday Late PM wintry mix details

MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Sunday, February 9, 2014 - 10:18pm

UPDATED: Monday, February 10, 2014 - 12:01am

Another round of cold arctic air will be moving into East Texas. This time, it's temporary, but we will still have a wintry weather situation to get through before we warm up later this week.

Here are the latest details about our chances of wintry weather.

SUNDAY NIGHT

A cold front has moved through our area. While we are not feeling the effects of it tonight, we will really feel it on Monday.

I expect overnight lows Sunday night will be in the 30s and 40s area-wide. The winds will be picking up by daybreak. The lows Sunday night into Monday morning will actually be the high temperatures for Monday.

MONDAY

On Monday, expect areas of light rain and drizzle across East Texas throughout much of the day. Here is our Futurecast model at 7AM predicting some light rain in the Tyler area. Everyone will have a chance of rain throughout the day.

Afternoon temperatures will be in the 30s and low 40s across the area by about 3PM.

Rain chances look to increase by the evening, and that’s where our wintry weather scenario sets up.

MONDAY NIGHT — TUESDAY MORNING

Precipitation looks likely across our area. While it is not a lot, there is enough to provide some wintry weather through the overnight and early morning hours on Tuesday.

We have cold air in place over our area, and KETK Meteorologists do believe that East Texas temperatures will be below freezing. The question will be if there will be a lifting mechanism for this precipitation to become more widespread.

The GFS and the NAM both have some lift taking place at about 18,000 feet, and this could be enough for a wintry mix to occur.

If this lifting mechanism takes place, precipitation looks likely. Below is our Futurecast model for 10PM Monday night and the GFS and NAM output for 3AM and 6AM Tuesday morning.

Temperatures at the surface will be below freezing (see images below), and the temperatures at 5,000 feet will be slightly above freezing. This type of environment (called an overrunning event) will support mainly freezing rain and some sleet across our area. Any snow will be just north of the I-30 corridor.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY

Temperatures will slowly rise above freezing on Tuesday and we will see a transition to all rain/snow mix during the day. Temperatures at about 5,000 feet will be below freezing but with temperatures rising above freezing, little to no accumulations will be expected. Some light snow showers possible as the precipitation exits East Texas, but again accumulations will be slim to none.

We’ll continue to keep you alert of the latest weather conditions with this event. It will be closely monitored and we will have the latest information as new model data comes in.

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