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Weather Talk: Possible winter weather

Weather Talk: Possible winter weather
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Friday, November 22, 2013 - 7:27pm

UPDATED: Friday, November 22, 2013 - 7:30pm

Hi everyone. In my last blog post, we discussed the strong cold air that has now moved into East Texas. We also discussed chances of rain likely for Saturday and for Monday. Today, I wanted to give you an update because the forecast has changed—and it now includes some possible Winter Weather for our area. So let’s get right to the latest forecast.

NOWCAST: Friday Afternoon – Late Sunday Morning:

We will continue to see periods of showers across East Texas. If you don’t see the rain, you will have the cloud cover stay in place across the region.

I do believe all of East Texas will just barely make it into the middle 40s on Saturday and Sunday for daytime highs. Overnight lows Friday night will be in the middle to upper 30s and Saturday night lows will drop down to the middle 30s. A few areas (mainly Northern counties) could be near freezing. Rain chances for Saturday night look to be very low, so we do not have to worry about any possibility of winter weather…that is until we get to Sunday Afternoon.

The “Potential” for Winter Weather:

A Winter Storm Watch will be in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Hopkins County. I expect more of our Northern counties to be added. 

As we have been advertising, an area of low pressure will move out of Southern California and begin to move through Texas by Monday afternoon. As this happens, precipitation will increase beginning in West Texas Sunday morning. It is becoming more and more likely that the Dallas/Fort Worth and North Central Texas area will likely see mixed precipitation—consisting of sleet, freezing rain, and ice. For East Texas, the precipitation will likely start as rain and the changeover to sleet and freezing rain will occur within hours.

The image above shows when the precipitation could move into East Texas. So, the timetable of when we will see the precipitation looks to begin by late morning into early afternoon for our area.

WHO will have the best chance of seeing the wintry precipitation? Areas along and to the North of I-20 have the best chance of seeing this rainfall. This does include parts of Smith and Gregg counties and areas to the North. Deep East Texas will only see rainfall with this system. Temperatures will try to reach the upper 30s during the morning Sunday, but as the precipitation becomes closer, those temps will fall, especially in our Northern counties.

HOW LONG: This is expected to stay across our region through Sunday night and well into Monday morning. The question then becomes how long with temperatures stay at or below freezing. The North American Model keeps the Tyler area in the mixed precipitation zone all night Sunday and into Monday morning before it turns over to all rain. The Global Forecast System Model has rain through the night. I believe we will have mixed precipitation through Monday before the rain finally moves out late Monday evening.

I must stress that the track of this system could change. Either way, you will want to stay tuned to our forecasts. I will have updates during the weekend, both here at KETKnbc.com and on my social media pages.

Follow me for updates: http://www.facebook.com/KETKMarcusBagwell and http://www.twitter.com/KETK_MarcusWX.

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