Weather Talk: Rain chances increasing this week
POSTED: Saturday, June 21, 2014 - 10:23pm
UPDATED: Saturday, June 21, 2014 - 10:53pm
(KETK) - Tyler, Tx — This last week, there has been some decent afternoon and early evening storms. Our highs have reached the low and middle 90s the last five days, but as we begin the first full official week of summer, relief will be coming again via more showers and storms.
DETAILS ON THE RAIN
For Sunday, I expect our showers and storms to increase by the afternoon hours. These will be scattered in nature. The atmosphere will be unstable and this will enable storms to develop. The GFS and NAM forecast models have a tough time initiating this; however the NAM does paint some precipitation in Deep East Texas by 7PM.
Shower and storm chances will increase once again in the afternoon hours and will last well into the evening and overnight. They will begin as scattered, and then turn more numerous by the evening and overnight. According to the NAM model, the better rain chances/rainfall amounts will be in our northern and central counties (including Tyler & Longview).
Scattered showers and storms will be ongoing by daybreak and more development of storms is likely into Tuesday afternoon.
We lose the NAM forecast model (because it only forecasts out to 84 hours), but it does look like some remaining showers and storms will be possible. At the end of the upcoming week (Thursday through Saturday), a ridge of high pressure tries to build into the Deep South. If this happens, we will be on the outer edge of the ridge and that will mean isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening shower and storm activity. For now, we’ll keep those precipitation chances at 20%.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper level area of high pressure that has sent us the hot and humid weather retreats to our west. That opens the door for pieces of energy to move around that high and come toward Texas, and in turn gives us decent rain chances.
It is possible that a majority of the upper level energy could slide East from the Rocky Mountains. If that happens, then our rain chances will go down. That is a caveat that we’re watching. We will provide additional updates as necessary. For the latest weather, visit the KETK Weather Page.