Weather Talk: Showers and brief wintry mix tonight
(KETK) - Tyler, Tx — We have another disturbance that will be moving through our area this evening and tonight. Showers are possible as well as some wet snow. We are expecting no accumulation, primarily because temperatures will be right at or just above freezing.
As of earlier Wednesday afternoon, there was an upper level area of Low pressure centered just west of the DFW-Metroplex. This is causing some shower activity out ahead and on behind the Low. For East Texas, we went from a partly sunny morning to a mostly cloudy afternoon with some scattered showers as well. Our temperatures have been rising to the 40s.
Here’s what you can expect this evening.
The forcing of the upper level low, known as the vorticity, will be sliding eastward toward East Texas. Vorticity is spin in the atmosphere. There are two types—positive and negative. Negative vorticity is associated with high pressure at the surface—sinking air. Positive vorticity is associated with low pressure at the surface—rising air—and also provides a lifting mechanism for precipitation to develop.
This upward motion of air can lead to precipitation to develop. Since our temperatures are above freezing, the precipitation type will be a cold rain. Here are the GFS output of temperatures and precipitation at about 6PM. Remember, forecast models are guidance and not an actual depiction of what will actually happen.
By late this evening and into tonight, the temperatures at 5,000 feet will be cold enough for some wet snow flakes to fall. Temperatures at the surface will be above the 32° mark, supporting an environment of rain/sleet/snow mixture, but KETK Meteorologists are not expecting any accumulation. Below is the GFS output of temperatures at the surface, the temperature at 5,000 feet, and the precipitation at Midnight tonight.
By Thursday morning, there could be a few light showers around our eastern counties, but this activity is pushing off to the east and skies will begin to clear out by the afternoon. Temperatures should respond nicely as well, approaching the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday afternoon under partly sunny skies.
An upper level disturbance will move through East Texas providing some showers in the evening with a chance of some rain changing to a wintry mix (wet snow). But, there should be no accumulation and travel impacts. Temperatures will be just above freezing by daybreak Thursday morning and the precipitation will be moving out of our area. Then temperatures warm up in the afternoon under partly sunny skies with highs averaging around the 50-degree mark. Looking ahead, the weather will be better than the snow and ice we saw earlier this week with some scattered rain chances during the weekend.