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Weather Talk: Storms for Sunday & Monday

Weather Talk: Storms for Sunday & Monday
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Sunday, June 8, 2014 - 9:42am

UPDATED: Sunday, June 8, 2014 - 5:52pm

Sunday 6PM Update:

A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until 9PM for the following counties: Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Sabine, San Augustine, & Shelby.

For much of the morning, we have had cloudy skies in East Texas. By this afternoon, cumulus clouds developed and that has led to late afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms over East Texas. As of 6:15PM, none of them have produced warnings in East Texas...most of the severe activity has been in Louisiana and Arkansas.

As I mentioned below, I thought the NAM forecast model was handling the forecast for today very well. I was wrong. All of our synoptic scale forecast models (GFS & NAM) have struggled to get this system right. As the upper level trough moves East late this evening and overnight, showers and storms will once again become more likely.

We'll continue to watch for the new model data and update you as needed.

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Sunday AM Update:

We're going to see area showers and storms for your Sunday in East Texas. The best chance for East Texas will be as we go through the afternoon, evening, and overnight Sunday.

RADAR UPDATE

As of 10:35AM, the radar is showing a line of showers and storms heading toward the East/Northeast. In the last few hours, this line has slightly intensified, especially in Central Texas. Models are trending to show that the atmosphere over our area will become more unstable, and this will allow for these storms to affect us.

FORECAST & MODEL OUTPUTS

With that being said, our Futurecast model shows scattered showers and storms through this afternoon and evening. Note that where you see the rainfall colors does not fully mean it will occur there. Take this model as a coverage and notice the coverage for the showers and storms.

By this evening, our model wants to put little to zero precipitation in the area. I tend to disagree with this because the upper level trough will be getting closer to us. As this trough approaches, it provides the lifting mechanism needed for showers and storms. The North American Model (NAM) shows this at 7PM, 10PM, and 1AM.

Some storms this afternoon, evening, and tonight could be strong to severe. Main concerns will be the threat of damaging winds and some hail. The tornado threat is low, but with these systems, sometimes you can get a brief tornado spin-up. We will be watching this closely. More importantly, some good rain looks to come out of this. We're expecting at least 1-4" with the heaviest amounts in northern areas. This rain continues into Monday as a cold front and upper level disturbance moves over East Texas.

Keep you updated throughout the day.

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