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Weather Talk: Storms Monday Afternoon & Tonight

Weather Talk: Storms Monday Afternoon & Tonight
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Monday, April 21, 2014 - 3:40pm

UPDATED: Monday, April 21, 2014 - 11:06pm

11PM Update:

The Severe T-Storm Watch expired at 10PM for East Texas. For the next several hours, expect scattered showers to continue to move through East Texas from North to South. These storms will contain a lot of lightning and some heavy rainfall at times. A strong storm is possible, but most of the storms will be general t-storms.

Clouds will begin to clear out through the late night and early morning hours on Tuesday. For Tuesday, expect a drier and partly to mostly sunny day. Northerly winds will provide the cooler air.

The next significant rain chance comes by this weekend. Enjoy this week.

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7:50PM Update:

Hopkins county has been removed from the Severe T-Storm Watch.

Currently a line of showers and storms are moving through our northern counties. A Severe T-Storm Warning is in effect for Rains county until 8PM. A Severe T-Storm Watch remains in effect for Anderson, Camp, Cherokee, Franklin, Henderson, Rains, Smith, Titus, Upshur, Van Zandt, and Wood counties until 10PM tonight.

With the loss of daytime heating, these storms should begin to weaken over the next few hours. However, strong thunderstorms remain likely.

Keep you updated all night.

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3PM Update:

New Severe T-Storm Watch for our western counties. Counties included in the watch: Anderson, Camp, Cherokee, Franklin, Henderson, Hopkins, Rains, Smith, Titus, Upshur, Van Zandt, and Wood. This watch is in effect until 10PM tonight. The strongest storms looks to occur in Central Texas. However, KETK Meteorologists believe that East Texas could see a few strong storms through the late afternoon and evening hours tonight. We will keep you updated.

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Due to a very warm/humid airmass and an approaching cold front, the storms that will develop late this afternoon and evening will have the potential to be strong to severe.

NOWCAST: THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON

Most of East Texas is seeing a fair amount of cloud cover this morning. This cloud cover will begin to break apart as we go through the next few hours, allowing for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s. The winds will also pick up from the southwest at about 10-20 miles per hour.

Also this morning, we are noticing the very muggy air in place, as the dew points have jumped into the 60s all across the area.

The rainfall currently is over portions of SE Oklahoma, portions of Arkansas and Louisiana.

MODEL FORECASTS

By this afternoon (2-4pm), we will see storms develop to our north and west. Severe thunderstorms will be possible for the Central Texas area first, and then make its way toward East Texas.

The RPM model shows scattered storms by 4PM and intensifies a line of showers and storms right after sundown for East Texas. By 4PM, that begins our timing of storms entering the region. You’ll note that by 7PM the activity entering our area is not a lot, but by 9PM it will be heavier activity in our northern counties.

Another model, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, shows scattered showers and storms by the mid-afternoon and lasting through the evening hours as a cold front approaches the area.

FORECAST

Will there be some strong storms today? Yes. We are not expecting widespread severe weather this afternoon and evening. The main threats with any storm that develops today will be large hail and damaging winds. There is an isolated tornado threat, but it looks to be low. Timing: the line of showers and storms will move through East Texas from around mid-afternoon (3-5pm) and end by late tonight (10pm-12am). As the sun sets and we lose daytime heating, the severe potential should become less as well. Also, not everyone will see rain, as overall coverage for today’s showers and thunderstorms is at 60%.

Once we get through today, nice weather returns until we get into the latter part of the week. High temperatures this week will be in the 80s.

While this is not a significant severe weather outbreak day, KETK Meteorologists want you to be weather aware this afternoon and evening. Have a plan of safety before severe weather strikes. Stay tuned to KETK-TV, our KETK Facebook Page, our KETK Twitter Account, and our KETK Mobile App. For the weather forecast, visit our weather page.

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