Watches & Warnings Warnings

Weather Talk: Strong storms possible Friday

MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Thursday, March 27, 2014 - 5:16pm

UPDATED: Thursday, March 27, 2014 - 6:27pm

Storms today have been limited due to the overcast and cloudy skies we have had in East Texas. The heaviest storms have been in Deep East Texas where there were a few severe storm warnings earlier this afternoon.

As Chief Meteorologist Scott Chesner and Meteorologist Robert Thornton have been mentioning on KETK broadcasts, there is a chance of strong storms on Friday afternoon as a cold front moves toward the area. Right now, we believe the severe potential will be existent but scattered in nature. Once we get through Friday, we’re smooth sailing through the weekend and into the first part of next week.

Here are the details.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Tonight, we will have mostly cloudy skies in East Texas. This will hold temperatures this evening in the upper 60s to near 70 in most areas. By tomorrow morning, we will likely have patchy fog in the area by daybreak. Here is the GFS and NAM model forecast at 7AM tomorrow morning.

Also, note that the dew points will be in the 60s tomorrow morning. There is a lot of Gulf moisture that will be in place over our area.

FRIDAY

During the day Friday, KETK Meteorologists expect there to be mostly cloudy skies over East Texas with some scattered showers possible. There will be peaks of sunshine that will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 70s and 80s on Friday. That sunshine could spell trouble for us by afternoon and evening, as that is the primetime for strong storms to develop. A parameter we are noticing that is very high is the CAPE values. CAPE is the amount of energy for a parcel to rise in the atmosphere and produce strong convection (storms). With that being said, here is the NAM forecast of mixed-layer CAPE and CIN (prevention of storms) at 1PM and 4PM Friday afternoon.

A concern with the very high CAPE values is that the wind environment with these storms. The wind profile parameters look to be very high, which could allow the storms to not last long. This is something we will have to watch closely over the next 24 hours.

We will be expecting storms to develop due to forcing at 18,000 feet and a surface area of low pressure along a cold front that will be moving in by late afternoon and evening on Friday.

The NAM run shows showers and storms increasing by late afternoon and into the early evening.

The RPM Model has activity increasing by the late afternoon and into the early evening.

To sum up, the strong to severe storm chance looks to be best by mid-afternoon and evening for East Texas. The severity will be there but will be scattered. With this threat, the SPC has all of East Texas in a Slight Risk of strong to severe storms for Friday—main threats being large hail and damaging winds with a small chance of an isolated tornado possible.

By the evening hours, we will be tracking the cold front as it moved toward our area. By 1AM Saturday morning, should be moving through and rain chances will be ending as well.

The weekend will be wonderful. It will feel much drier and cooler, but temperatures will remain above average with highs in the 70s both on Saturday and Sunday and nighttime lows each night into the 40s. The next good chance of rain comes by the middle of next week.

We will continue to keep you updated with the latest forecast on-air, online, and through our KETK Mobile App. For the latest forecast, visit the Weather page

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