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Saturday, December 27, 2014 - 9:53pm

Weather Talk: Sunday Storms

Weather Talk: Sunday Storms
MGN Online
Weather Talk

POSTED: Sunday, April 27, 2014 - 9:51am

UPDATED: Monday, April 28, 2014 - 2:12pm

Sunday 8:50 PM Update:

New information.

  1. The Tornado Watch has been CANCELED for these counties: Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Smith, Upshur, & Wood.
  2. The Tornado Watch has been EXTENDED until 11PM for these counties: Camp, Cass, Franklin, Morris, & Titus.

Current thinking is that as the upper level disturbance moves through late tonight. there will be a possibility of more showers and storms developing. We will be watching the radar trends carefully this evening and into the night.

Still, all severe weather parameters (large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes) are all possible.

Keep you updated.

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Sunday 7PM Update:

Our strongest storms came from Ellis county into our Northern areas. These storms have had history of producting large hail and damaging winds.

A couple of notes.

  1. Severe T-Storm Watch until 8PM for Henderson, Hopkins, Rains, and Van Zandt. We'll see if another watch similar is reissued.
  2. Tornado Watch until 9PM for Camp, Cass, Franklin, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Smith, Titus, Upshur, and Wood.
  3. Latest Hi-Resolution models are continuing to suggest a very active night. More storms could develop along the dryline that has stalled between a line from DFW to Waco. 

All of this to say, we need to remain on alert for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Our entire KETK Weather Team will be keeping you updated all night long.

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Sunday 1:45 PM Update:

A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of East Texas. This watch in effect until 9PM tonight. Counties included in watch: Camp, Cass, Franklin, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Smith, Titus, Upshur, and Wood.

Severe thunderstorms, with the potential to produce tornadoes, are possible for the watch area. The greater threat will remain in Arkansas, but until the dryline and cold front move toward East Texas, severe thunderstorms remain a possibility.

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Sunday AM Update:

A Severe T-Storm Watch has been issued for our western counties. Counties included: Anderson, Henderson, Hopkins, Rains, and Van Zandt. This watch is in effect until 3PM.

The radar has a line of storms that recently split. What this shows me is that the cloud cover and cool air aloft in East Texas is winning. More development of storms are likely by the afternoon and evening hours--and we will have to watch these very carefully.

The cold front and dryline is passing through Wichita Falls, Abilene, and San Angelo. Out ahead of the dryline (Central/East TX), very warm and muggy. Behind the dryline, hot and dry air. There are also breaks in the clouds in Central Texas.

As these weather features push East and breaks in the clouds by the afternoon hours, storms will be very likely to develop.

Now, if clouds hang tough, then our severe potential goes down significantly. Again, the best threat for severe weather will be into the ArkLaTex region.

The SPC has all of East Texas under a Slight Risk of Storms today with a moderate risk in our extreme NE counties and into the ArkLaTex.

Storms that develop will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging winds, and we could see a few tornadoes. This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak for our area, and the storms will be scattered in nature. This is why it is important for everyone to stay weather aware today.

Best timing will be into this afternoon and evening. Storms should exit between 9-11PM tonight

We will continue to keep you updated.

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Saturday PM Update:

The threat of severe weather remains likely on Sunday for East Texas. Again, being aware of the weather is crucial for tomorrow as storms will be scattered in nature.

1. The Latest Outlook from SPC

The Storm Prediction Center keeps our NE counties under a moderate risk of severe weather—this is where the storms could be the strongest. The rest of East Texas remains under a slight risk. KETK Meteorologists believe that our eastern areas will have the better threat of seeing large hail and possible tornadoes, but the entire viewing area has potential to see severe weather on Sunday.

HOW CAN YOU BE PREPARED?

First, remember the difference between a weather watch and a warning. A watch means conditions are favorable for hazardous weather to occur; have a plan in case a warning is issued. A warning means the event is imminent or occurring now; you want to activate your safety plan and take precautionary measures to protect life and property. Second, have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. If you lose power, don’t be left without receiving the latest weather information. Download our mobile app and have a NOAA weather radio. Also, know the important tips for tornado preparedness.

2. Model Output of Storms & Timing

Right now, current thinking is that there will be morning showers and storms scattered across East Texas. Regardless of if we do or do not see AM showers, storms will begin to fire up by the afternoon hours.

Supercell storms will be possible by the afternoon and evening. Even into the evening, storms still look to be strong to severe. The major storms remain in portions of Arkansas, but in East Texas we need to watch storms closely too.

Storms look to end by late Sunday evening (between 9-10PM).

3. Conclusion

Any storm that does develop will have a large hail and damaging wind threat. The tornado is present, but the tornado threat is the greatest for the Arkansas/Northern Louisiana areas. Storms will be scattered, and not everyone will see a severe storm.

We’ll keep you updated with the latest information.

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Friday PM Update:

Good afternoon everyone. In this update, I will show you the latest map of the severe potential for Sunday from the Storm Prediction Center and show you some of the Hi-Resolution model data for Sunday.

1. The Latest Outlook from SPC

On Saturday, the severe potential will be in the Plains states and to the west of DFW.

By Sunday, the SPC continues to keep most of East Texas under a Slight Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. They have even put a few Northeastern counties under a moderate risk of severe storms--which means that the severe threat is greater in the orange-shaded area.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU & ME?

We need to keep an eye to the sky for Sunday. Storms will have the potential to produce lots of lightning, large hail, damaging winds, flooding, and some tornadoes. The timing continues to be by late morning through the evening hours. You need to be weather aware on Sunday. You may think that because the "moderate" threat of storms is mainly Northeast of Tyler/Longview that you can hold your guard down--I would discourage against that. Our environment is just as favorable, even though we are in the yellow "slight risk" zone.

2. Model Precipitation Output

Sunday morning, there will be some area showers and storms across East Texas. These will be quickly moving out of our area, meaning a break in the action for the instability to increase and for strong to severe storms to develop.

By the time you are leaving church or headed out for lunch, storms look to develop very quickly. Beginning at this time, you will want to be weather aware.

It is very likely that storms will continue into the evening hours, at least through 9-10PM as they exit the region and move East.

3. A MAJOR Drop In Temperatures By Middle of Next Week

Once the severe weather exits the region and the cold front finally moves in (Tuesday AM), we will be in for much cooler than normal temperatures to end the month of April. Our average high should be near 80°, but we will see average highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s with a northerly wind flow.

Conclusion:

Right now, Saturday will be rain free with warm, humid, and windy conditions. Sunday, all eyes are on the weather for severe thunderstorms. Showers and storms could begin as early as 5AM, but the best time for the severe storms will be in the afternoon/evening hours.

I'll continue to keep you updated. For those interested in the setup for this event, see below.

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THURSDAY UPDATE:

The threat of strong to severe storms is becoming increasingly likely on Sunday. We want you to be prepared with the latest information before the storms hit. In this post, I will talk about the setup and give a general timing of the event.

THE SETUP:

1. UPPER LEVEL FLOW

On Saturday, a very strong trough will become be moving over Nevada and headed into the four-corner states (New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah). By Sunday, this trough becomes negatively tilted. This negative trough means: the instability will increase due to warm air advecting upward, a very intense area of low pressure at the surface has matured, and that the wind shear in the atmosphere is very strong.

This trough will also cause divergence aloft and create convergence (area of low pressure) at the surface.

2. VERY FAST MOVING AND DIRECTION-CHANGING WINDS

The winds for this event are very strong. We have wind speeds that increase with height and directional wind that change with height. Surface winds are forecasted to be South/Southeast at 10-20 miles per hour. The winds at 5,000 feet are forecasted to be South/Southwest at 45-60 miles per hour. And, winds at 18,000 feet are forecasted to be Southwest at 45-80 miles per hour. The speed shear and directional shear change with height are decent to strong, meaning that our environment on Sunday can support supercell like storms that will have potential to produce tornadoes.

3. Surface Parameters

Multiple surface parameters will aid with storm development for Sunday. First, a dryline moving through Texas by midday will set off showers and storms by the early afternoon hours. The GFS model forecasts the dryline to be passing DFW by late morning/early afternoon. For East Texas, we will be very muggy with dew points likely in the 60s and near the 70 range. There will be lots of humidity in the air.

Second, temperatures will be warming up from the upper 60s and low 70s for morning lows to the upper 70s and low 80s by the afternoon hours. This means there will be a lot of warm air advection at the surface and in the low-levels of the atmosphere.

Finally, the NAM model is forecasting breaks in the clouds. This will mean that there will be a very weak to no lid on the atmosphere—allowing warm air from the surface to move higher up into the atmosphere. The breaks in the clouds mean that the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will be very high, near 3000 Joules per kilogram.

THE TIMING

Timing of storms on Sunday will be in the afternoon and evening hours. If we see any morning showers or storms, it will limit our severe weather potential for Sunday. Right now, models are showing some area showers and storms by Sunday AM. We will have a better idea of the morning showers as we go into this weekend.

CONCLUSION

This is a very powerful system that will be moving through the country. Severe Weather will begin Saturday in the Southern Plains and will continue into the Deep South and Tennessee Valley regions through Monday.

We want you to be weather aware for Sunday. Have a secondary plan for any outdoor events. With the threat of severe weather, have a safety plan for you and your family in case severe weather strikes. Check the batteries in your weather radio and flashlights. Know your storm shelter location—a basement, closet, bathroom, on the lowest floor and away from windows. This blog will be updated throughout the weekend with the latest updates.

Comments News Comments

Weather is my business. KETK weather report is one of the best, I have seen. I cannot believe that I had been using and usually extremely frustrated with KLTV online weather. KETK ...you have my confidence. Your online weather is well written with excellent visuals and contains timely updates. Goodbye KLTV!

Wayne - Marcus seems a nice guy and we like him, but for us personally, he provides a little TMI. And by the way, can you explain the, "higher power than me that will keep us safe". If you are referring to God Himself ? He promises salvation and eternal life, not protection from earthly storms. Look at what happened to early Christians at the hands of the Roman powers in place at that time. A destination in heaven with our God and Savior Jesus Christ, is our promise. Not being rude, but c'mon.

Sounding very dismal. I have been in one tornado and don't want to be in an other one, but there is a higher power than me that will keep us safe. Thank you so much for your insight. Keep up the good work!

Thank You so much Marcus!

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