Weather Talk: The weekend ahead: Hot & some storm chances

Weather Talk: The weekend ahead: Hot & some storm chances
KETK
Weather Talk
Friday, August 15, 2014 - 11:38am

We have been blessed with fantastic weather over the past few days. Check out these low and high temperatures in Tyler. We finally felt the lower humidity and pleasant days beginning Wednesday.

PLANNING YOUR WEEKEND

If only that weather could stick around longer! Unfortunately, it has left the area and the humidity is returning. Our weather headlines for the weekend ahead…

Temperatures this weekend are forecasted to be right at or above normal for this time of the year. The August heat is making a comeback, but there is still no sign of the first 100° day for Tyler or Longview.

STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND?

We do have some rain chances in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, which could provide some relief from the heat and humidity we’ll have this weekend.

An upper disturbance out of the Rocky Mountains will be advancing eastward to the Northern/Central Plains, Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley/Mid-South regions. While a bulk of this disturbance moves into the aforementioned areas, some leftover energy will remain in the Four Corners states (AR, CO, NM, UT), and that will move into Texas during the day Saturday.

SATURDAY

As this happens, it will aid in scattered showers and storms to develop in and around of North-central Texas and some of these could move into our far northern and western counties Saturday afternoon and evening.

Most models are showing this feature well. The NAM model does show development taking place in north-central Texas by 4PM Saturday and then a line developing along the Red River/our northern counties at 10PM Saturday.

The NAM model indicates that the shower and storm activity will be ending overnight and into the early morning hours on Sunday.

The Texas Tech model also agrees with area showers and storms for western and northern counties Saturday evening and night.

SUNDAY

The TX-Tech and NAM models have slight disagreement on the chance of rain for Sunday.

The Friday morning NAM run keeps us rain-free, however showers and storms ongoing West of DFW, and a few in Deep East Texas.

The Texas Tech model holds the overnight shower activity into the daytime hours on Sunday through the afternoon hours.

While I do believe the TX-Tech model is overdoing the rain chances for Sunday, it’s certainly possible to have area showers and t-storms in the area because the upper level energy is present. It is a tricky forecast that bears monitoring over the next 48 hours.

If this rain verifies, it can really put a damper on the middle and upper 90s that are in the forecast for the weekend.

I would not change your outdoor plans for the weekend, but be weather aware. Our weather team will keep you updated with the latest forecast throughout the weekend.

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