Weather Talk: Thursday Update
POSTED: Thursday, December 5, 2013 - 5:05pm
UPDATED: Friday, December 6, 2013 - 8:27am
(KETK) - Tyler Tx — The KETK Weather Team wants to keep you informed of the very latest weather situation. Here is Thursday’s Update.
Thursday Night – Early Friday Morning
There is no question that we will have showers across East Texas as the evening progresses. The question is: Who will we see wintry precipitation. The two images below show the 12AM forecasted temperatures. The freezing (white) line looks to be mainly west & north of our area with the possibility of our Northern counties seeing some freezing precipitation.
What we are more concerned about is if we start as rain, temperatures may fall right below freezing during the early morning (2AM-6AM). The best potential for this will be along I-30. Places like Sulphur Springs and Mount Pleasant, know that there is a possibility of freezing rain or sleet to occur in your area. For Tyler, we look to have a cold rain, but temperatures will be within a few degrees of it being either rain or freezing rain/sleet.
Friday Morning – Afternoon
Friday morning looks to be all rain across our area with the rain ending by late morning into the afternoon. Below is the GFS solution and NAM solution for precipitation 6AM, 12PM, and 6PM. Notice that by 6PM, most, if not all the rain, has left East Texas.
Friday Night – Saturday Morning
There is really no change for Friday night. All precipitation will be out of our area and temperatures will drop below freezing. A concern that we will have is for black ice to form on roadways and side streets. So keep that in mind overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect cloudy skies, and that will help keep temperatures from falling more than they could. The forecast models are showing temperatures to be in the upper 20s for many areas and the low 30s for Deep East Texas. Our neighbors in Oklahoma will likely see the teens and near single digit lows early Saturday morning.
Saturday Afternoon – Saturday Night
I will first walk you through the Global Forecast System (GFS) model on its thinking for us. This model wants to keep any precipitation out of our area until Saturday evening (after 4PM). When that precipitation arrives, temperatures will be right at or below freezing for many areas in East Texas. This could very well happen because with cold air already in place across our area, it will not take much for frozen precipitation to develop and make driving treacherous. Below is the temperature and time frame for Noon and 6PM Saturday. Notice how the precipitation starts along the Gulf of Mexico at Noon and by Saturday evening it is just south of Tyler.
The other solution is the North American Model, which is trending warmer. At the same times as mentioned before, temperatures will be above freezing with showers moving in by the late afternoon and evening.
Seeing that cold air has had time to become more shallower and penetrate more to the surface, the GFS model looks to have a better handle on what will happen Saturday. We also will not be seeing the sun anytime soon, so temperatures warming into the upper 30s isn’t quite possible for our area.
Overnight Saturday – Sunday Morning
With the likelihood of precipitation during this time, it will likely be a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and ice. This time, areas that will have below freezing temperatures will be from Tyler/Longview and areas north. Note below the 6AM temperatures and precipitation. This could present a problem for morning church services. For areas south of Tyler/Longview, expect a cold rain through midday.
Sunday Late Morning – Sunday Evening
Temperatures will moderate to just above freezing by the afternoon and evening. Any precipitation remaining during this time will be all rain. By Sunday evening, all of this rain will be out of our area and we will then have to start our work week with bitter cold temperatures. Temperatures will be 15° to 20° below normal.
As always, we are constantly checking the newest model runs and we want you to have the most accurate weather information. We will continue to keep you updated of the latest weather information, both on-air, online, on your mobile device, and through social media. KETK is your source for weather information.