Weather Talk: Tuesday forecast for July 4th

Weather Talk: Tuesday forecast for July 4th
MGN Online
Weather Talk
Wednesday, July 2, 2014 - 12:04am

Hello everyone. Leading up to July 4th, we want you to have the most accurate and up-to-date forecast so you can plan your day.

Here is Tuesday’s edition of “The July Fourth Forecast”…


The forecast models (GFS and NAM) today are continuing to advertise scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours, with the NAM model being more aggressive with precipitation in the afternoon hours.

For the morning hours, the GFS has a few showers, mainly in western and southern areas.

Both models are in agreement that scattered showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon due to daytime heating.

The NAM model is showing more aggressiveness with the precipitation moving more North in the late afternoon. The RPM model, advertises scattered activity, mainly to the southwest.

What looks to happen is that daytime heating will spark off scattered showers and storms for East Texas, with better coverage south of Tyler/Longview. This activity ends by the early evening around sunset, according to the GFS.


Models are not showing any differences to the temperatures on Friday. So, we’ll remain with what was mentioned in yesterday’s blog post.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, but 80s will prevail if we see rainfall take place. Sky condition: partly to mostly cloudy. Winds: out of the East and Southeast at 5-10 miles per hour.


Since the NAM forecast model included Friday in the forecast, we can now have a better certainty of what to expect. However, I believe the GFS model is better to stand on. We will have a 20%-30% chance of afternoon scattered showers and storms, with most of them dissipating around sunset. The best chance of rain will be for Deep East Texas. Highs should reach the upper 80s and low 90s.

I’ll provide another update Wednesday evening. Until then, I will post additional information about the rain chances from the late evening forecast models on my Facebook page and on Twitter. Follow me there for additional updates.

You can get the up-to-date forecast by visiting the KETK Weather Page.

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